ECONOMIC WAVES AND CYCLES IN THE SCIENTIFIC THEORES, SCENARIOS OF ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE
Abstract
Marshalok T.Ya. ECONOMIC WAVES AND CYCLES IN THE SCIENTIFIC THEORIES, SCENARIOS OF ECONOMIC CONJUNCTURE
Purpose. The aim of the article is to explore the nature of origin, the peculiarities of functioning, ways to overcome economic cycles, and to identify models that will enable us to determine the economic trend and prevent economic crises.
Methodology of research. The fundamental positions of modern economic theory, scientific works of scientists on the problems of economic cycles are the theoretical and methodological basis of the research. The general development of the theory of economic vibrations is analyzed in the process of research on the basis of the historical approach, as well as the method of analysis and synthesis used to identify the impact of economic cycles on the development of the country's economy, abstraction and generalization, comparison and analogy in comparing the results obtained by researchers and establishing the possibility of their use to carry out tasks to prevent economic fluctuations in practice.
Findings. An etymological analysis of the economic categories “cycle” and “wave” is carried out, research of scientific achievements of the leading scientists of the world in the field of economic cyclicality was conducted that made it possible to construct logical, substantiated scenarios of the trend of the economic cycle and to distinguish variants and scenarios of the country's economic development in the context of the formation of effective models of anti-cyclic regulation of the economy to overcome the negative consequences associated with the cyclical business environment of the national economy.
Originality. The article develops scenarios of the course of the economic cycle, which take into account all possible variants of economic development – from the most favourable to the most negative.
Practical value. The analysis of the theoretical positions of the economic cycle will enable future researchers to use the tools of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy more qualitatively to prevent economic crises in the country.
Key words: economic cycle; economic wave; economic development trend; countercyclical regulation of the economy; fiscal instruments.
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