SHADOW ECONOMY AS A THREAT TO UKRAINIAN ECONOMY'S SECURITY: METHODS OF MEASUREMENT AND SCALE ASSESSMENT

Abstract

Shepel T.V., Kostovyat H.I. SHADOW ECONOMY AS A THREAT TO UKRAINIAN ECONOMY'S SECURITY: METHODS OF MEASUREMENT AND SCALE ASSESSMENT

Purpose. The aim of the article is research of the essence of the shadow economy and assessment of the scale of the threat of shadowing the economy to the state's economic security.

Methodology of research. The study uses methods of scientific generalization to clarify the content of the shadow economy, its features; logical methods made it possible in the conditions of incomplete initial information to determine the current state of national economic security and the dynamics of the shadow economy; the method of comparative analysis allowed us to assess the dynamics of the shadow economy.

Findings. Five methods have been used to measure the impact of the shadow economy on economic security, based on a comparison of financial performance, service delivery, energy consumption, and economic financing.

Based on four methods, the integrated indicator of the shadow economy was determined, which in 2020 amounted to 30%, which confirms the threatening impact of the shadow economy on the state's economic security. The direct relationship between the shadow economy and the integrated indicator of economic security is considered. The negative impact of the shadow economy on the state's economic security has been confirmed through the use of statistical methods. It is established that with the increase of the shadow economy, financial security weakens. It is concluded that at the state level, it is necessary to solve the most serious problems affecting the level of economic security of the state and not to formally fight against small entrepreneurs who provide self-employment and support the economy during the crisis.

Originality. The study provides an economic and mathematical justification for the possibility of positioning the shadow economy as an integral indicator of the economic security of the state. It was proved for the first time that there is a close interrelation between the integrated indicator of the shadow economy and the integrated indicator of economic security of the state, which allows determining the formula for the level of economic security depending on the level of shadow economy with high probability (91%).

Practical value. The study results allow statistical and analytical institutions to assess the state's economic security in accordance with the level of the shadow economy, reflecting the results of the analysis in the reports on the results of public authorities and the economy.

Key words: shadow economy; economic security; economic freedom; level of the shadow economy; estimation methods.