USING CLUSTER ANALYSIS METHODS TO FORECAST THE INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ENTERPRISES
Abstract
Putsenteilo P.R., Kostetskyi Ya.I. USING CLUSTER ANALYSIS METHODS TO FORECAST THE INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ENTERPRISES
Purpose. The aim of the article is substantiation and use of cluster analysis methods for forecasting investment development of agricultural sector enterprises.
Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the article is the fundamental provisions of modern economics. The following methods are used in the process of research: analysis and synthesis – to study the object and subject of research; grouping, abstract and logical – for theoretical generalizations of research results and formulation of conclusions; tools of econometric modelling: method of cluster analysis, constructive and strategic forecasting – in the study of the state of the agricultural sector, substantiation of the directions of cluster formation, forecasting trends in the agricultural sector for the future; statistical analysis and generalization – to process an array of statistical and empirical data and formulate the relevant conclusions of the conducted study.
Findings. The need to model the conditions associated with investment in an unstable external environment of the agricultural sector. The application of cluster analysis to study the state of the agricultural sector is proposed. The use of econometric modelling tools – methods of statistical analysis for forecasting the development of agricultural enterprises is substantiated. The cost of investments in agriculture of Ukraine is analysed.
Originality. Recommendations for wider use of econometric modelling tools to ensure the process of planning and forecasting the development of the agricultural sector of the economy have been deepened. The scientific and methodological approach to forecasting the development of the agricultural sector for the future has been improved with the help of cluster analysis tools, which confirmed the rational use of territorial distribution by regions and growth of investment capacity of agricultural production and average labour productivity.
Practical value. The obtained results of the study allowed to systematize the factors that most affect the results of financial and economic activities, and to identify three scenarios of agricultural production in clusters (in homogeneous groups of regions): realistic, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts, identify alternative trajectories of agricultural sector, compare forecasting volumes of agricultural production with domestic needs and estimate export growth.
Key words: agricultural sector, investment support, methods of cluster analysis, investment development forecasting, cluster, scenarios of agricultural production development.
Keywords
Full Text:
References
Andriichuk, V.H. (2006), “Capitalization of agriculture: measurement of scales and assessment of advantages and threats of implementation”, Ekonomika APK, no. 2, pp. 8-16.
Balaniuk, I.F. and Sas, L.S. (2017), “Technological innovations in the bioeconomy of the country: tools of state regulation”, Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho universytetu. Seriia “Ekonomika”, Iss. 1(49), pp. 13-18.
Voloshchuk, K.B., Voloshchuk, V.R. and Katsan, A.M. (2020), “Investment attractiveness and opportunities for development of agro-industrial enterprises”, Innovatsiina ekonomika, no.1-2, pp. 145-150.
Hubeni, Yu. (2010), “Development of the institutional environment of agrarian transformation”, Ahrarna ekonomika, no. 1–2, Vol. 3, pp. 94-99.
Hudz, O.Ye. (2007), Finansovi resursy silskohospodarskykh pidpryiemstv [Financial resources of agricultural enterprises], monograph, NNTs IAE, Kyiv, Ukraine, 578 p.
Danko, Yu.I. (2016), Formuvannia system zabezpechennia konkurentospromozhnosti ahrarnykh pidpryiemstv [Formation of systems for ensuring the competitiveness of agricultural enterprises], Universytetska knyha, Sumy, Ukraine, 324 p.
Kropyvko, M.M. (2018), “Features of innovation and investment activities of farms in Ukraine”, Ekonomichnyi dyskurs, Issue 1, pp. 106-112.
Malik, M.Y. (2016), “Entrepreneurship and rural development”, Ekonomika APK, no. 6, pp. 97-103.
Parkhomets, M.K., Putsenteilo, P.R. and Uniiat, L.M. (2020), “Intensification of the use of renewable energy sources is an objective need to improve resource conservation and increase the competitiveness of production in the agricultural sector of Ukraine”, Innovatsiina ekonomika, no. 5-6, pp. 122-132.
Sabluk, P.T. (2014), Ekonomichnyi interes u rozvytku ahrarnoho vyrobnytstva [Economic interest in the development of agricultural production], monograph, NNTs «IAE», Kyiv, Ukraine, 356 p.
Svynous, I.V. and Khomiak, N.V. (2016), “Formation of a system of innovative support of reproduction processes of fixed assets of agricultural enterprises”, Stalyi rozvytok ekonomiky, no. 2, pp. 75-80.
State Statistics Service (2020), “Agriculture of Ukraine 2019 : statistical collection”, available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (access date October 29, 2020).
Uniiat, L.M. (2019), Orhanizatsiino-ekonomichni zasady innovatsiinoho rozvytku pidpryiemstv ahropromyslovoho biznesu v konkurentnomu seredovyshchi [Organizational and economic principles of innovative development of agro-industrial enterprises in a competitive environment], monograph, TNEU, Ternopil, Ukraine, 586 p.
Yatsiv, I.B. (2013), Konkurentospromozhnist silskohospodarskykh pidpryiemstv [Competitiveness of agricultural enterprises], Ukrainskyi bestseler, Lviv, Ukraine, 427 p.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37332/2309-1533.2020.7-8.12
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
INNOVATIVE ECONOMY 2006 - 2023