ASYMMETRY IN FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE’S DAIRY SECTOR: CHALLENGES FOR VALUE CHAINS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37332/Keywords:
dairy industry, foreign trade, global value chains, export potential, import substitution, food security, European integrationAbstract
Lishchynskyy I.O., Lyzun M.V. ASYMMETRY IN FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE’S DAIRY SECTOR: CHALLENGES FOR VALUE CHAINS
Purpose. The aim of the article is to investigate the structural transformations of Ukraine's dairy foreign trade as an indicator of the shifting model of the domestic industry's participation in global value chains amidst geopolitical turbulence and martial law.
Methodology of research. The study employs a set of general scientific and special methods: system and structural analysis to examine the commodity structure of exports and imports broken down by HS codes 0401–0406; comparative analysis to juxtapose trade volumes and determine the balance for specific product groups; the method of statistical groupings to rank key trading partners and identify geographic concentration vectors; the graphical method to visualize the dynamics of export and import operations for the period 2013–2024; and the abstract and logical method to draw conclusions regarding the industry's "raw material drift" and threats to food security.
Findings. Based on the analysis of large statistical datasets, it has been established that Ukraine's dairy sector has undergone a radical transformation, reorienting from CIS markets to the EU and Moldovan markets. A critical asymmetry in the commodity structure of trade was revealed: Ukraine is increasing exports of semi-finished products and raw materials (condensed milk, whey) to EU countries, particularly Poland, thereby integrating into European value chains at lower tiers. Simultaneously, the domestic market is rapidly losing ground in high-value-added segments (cheeses, yogurts), where imports, primarily from Poland and other EU countries, exceed exports several times over.
The study proves the emergence of a “mirror dependency” phenomenon, where market diversification is substituted by swapping one dominant partner (the Russian Federation in the past) for another (Poland in imports and Moldova in exports of finished products). It was determined that military actions and the logistical blockade led to the loss of promising Asian and African markets, forcing exporters to compete in the saturated European market or rely on situational regional partners.
Originality. The paper substantiates for the first time the concept of structural asymmetry in the integration of Ukraine’s dairy industry into global value chains, which, unlike existing approaches (viewing the reorientation to the EU market exclusively as a positive European integration trend), identifies the threat of entrenching the national producer’s status as a supplier of raw semi-finished products (HS 0402, 0404) for the European processing industry, thereby enabling a revision of state export policy priorities towards stimulating deep processing.
Practical value. The results of the conducted study have applied value for formulating a new export strategy for Ukraine's agricultural sector. They can be utilized by relevant ministries and associations to develop instruments for protecting the domestic market and programs to support deep milk processing. The conclusions regarding the risks of mono-dependency on specific partner countries serve as a foundation for diversifying logistical routes and seeking new market niches, particularly in the Global South, following the restoration of maritime logistics.
Key words: dairy industry, foreign trade, global value chains, export potential, import substitution, food security, European integration, commodity structure.
References
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