TRANSITIONING FROM A RAW-MATERIAL EXPORT MODEL TO VALUE-ADDED CHAINS: STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE’S AGRI-FOOD EXPORT SECTOR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37332/Keywords:
agri-food exports, agri-food products, agricultural sector, commodity structure, value added, value chains, cereals, oilseeds, deep processing, livestock production, bioenergy, public policyAbstract
Seheda S.A. TRANSITIONING FROM A RAW-MATERIAL EXPORT MODEL TO VALUE-ADDED CHAINS:STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE’S AGRI-FOOD EXPORT SECTOR
Purpose. The aim of the article is to study the place of agri-food products in the commodity structure of Ukraine's exports through the prism of creating and maintaining added value, as well as developing proposals for improving the areas of use of agricultural sector products within national value-added chains.
Methodology of research. The research is based on a combination of general scientific and applied economic methods. These include statistical and comparative analysis of export dynamics, structural analysis of the commodity composition of agri-food exports, and factor analysis of export revenues by volume and price effects. Time series analysis was used to assess long-term trends in the production and export of key agricultural commodities, and elements of the value chain approach were used to assess the position of Ukrainian agri-food products in national and global value chains.
Findings. The transformation of Ukraine's agri-food exports during 2000-2024 is studied through the prism of the formation and maintenance of added value in the national economy. It is substantiated that the rapid increase in the production of grain and oilseed crops and the growth of the share of agricultural products in commodity exports (up to 59.1% in 2024) is accompanied by the consolidation of raw material specialization and insufficient development of internal value-added chains. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of foreign exchange receipts, the countercyclical role of the agricultural sector in periods of economic shocks is shown, while structural imbalances are revealed: the dominance of products of plant origin and primary processing (grain, oilseeds, vegetable oils) with a simultaneous reduction in the share of finished food products and livestock products. It is established that the growth of export revenue is largely ensured by the quantitative factor of price volatility, which increases vulnerability to the world market and limits the economic effect of the export-oriented model. The need for a state policy of reorienting exports from raw materials to products of deep industrial and "biological" processing, the development of feed, flour and cereal, food and bioenergy industries, the restoration of livestock farming and the expansion of the production of finished products and ingredients is argued. The proposed directions should ensure the strengthening of internal value chains, increasing the sustainability of the agricultural sector, increasing employment and budget revenues, and enhancing food security.
Originality. Theoretical and methodological provisions on assessing the role of the agricultural sector in foreign trade have been further developed by combining the analysis of the commodity structure of exports with the positioning of products in national value-added chains, which allows us to clarify the economic boundaries of the countercyclical function of agricultural exports and its impact on the long-term competitiveness of the economy. It is proven that the dominance of raw and semi-raw agri-food products in Ukraine's exports forms a stable model of "lost added value", which, unlike existing approaches, does not ensure proportional economic growth and restrains the innovative development of the agricultural sector due to the narrowing of internal value-added chains.
Practical value. The results of the study can be used in the formation and adjustment of the state agrarian, export and innovation policy of Ukraine, in particular by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, as well as regional authorities in the development of programs to support the development of processing industries, livestock farming and bioenergy as key links in the formation of added value. In addition, the results obtained can be used in the educational process of higher education institutions when teaching the disciplines "Economics of agricultural enterprises", "Foreign economic activity", "International trade", as well as in further scientific research into the problems of transformation of agrarian and food exports and the formation of value added chains.
Key words: agri-food exports, agri-food products, agricultural sector, commodity structure, value added, value chains, cereals, oilseeds,deep processing, livestock production, bioenergy, public policy.
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